MLB Free Agency: Where Will the Top Five Land?

The Major League Baseball free-agent market is typically the slowest to develop of any of the four major sports in the US. As a result, there is no July 1st frenzy that we see in the NBA or NHL where virtually every big name comes off the board early on in the process. However, in contrast to other sports leagues, star players in the MLB typically let the market develop itself before signing new contracts. For example, Bryce Harper waited until Spring Training began in 2019 before signing his 13-year, $330 million contract with the Philadelphia Phillies. History has shown players are not afraid to wait out the market, and this year has proven to be no exception. MLB free agency officially began on November 1st, 2020, but in the two months and change since the market was opened, only ten players on the MLB.com's top 60 free agent list have contracts signed for 2021. With the vast majority of big names available, here are predictions for who I think are the five best remaining free agents leading up to the 2021 season, as well as where I believe they will be signing their new contracts.

5. Marcel Ozuna, DH/LF signs with the Seattle Mariners: four years, $76MM

While this may seem like an odd fit at first, it actually makes a ton of sense. The Mariners are not ready to contend yet but are not far off from making a real postseason run. They have the reigning American League Rookie of the Year, Kyle Lewis, and one of the brightest prospects in the game who should be contributing in Seattle sooner than later in Jarred Kelenic. (Haven't heard of him? Check this out.) With more high-end talent coming through the system, the Mariners will be looking to break the longest active playoff drought in the MLB (19 years) in the upcoming seasons. Ozuna could be a perfect fit in the DH slot, filling the hole left by Nelson Cruz when he left for the Twins a couple of years ago. Ozuna, a former Gold Glove Award winner, has lost a lot of his defensive ability due to shoulder injuries which required surgery following the 2018 season. Despite his injuries, he can hit as well as he ever could, even leading the NL with 18 homeruns and 56 RBI in 2020. With the looming question over whether there will be a designated hitter in the NL for the 2021 season, Ozuna, 30, will likely be much more attractive to AL clubs who can slot him in the DH role.

Other teams to watch: Twins, Nationals, White Sox, Blue Jays

4. Trevor Bauer, SP signs with the Los Angeles Angels: four years $120MM

No, this is not a mistake: I have Trevor Bauer as the fourth-best free agent remaining. The best starting pitcher on the market will turn 30 later this month and is coming off the best season of his career, which led him to the NL Cy Young award. Bauer has taken a very scientific approach to his pitching, nabbing 1.73 ERA in 73 IP, and has the highest spin rate on his fastball of any pitcher. However, although Bauer pitched a season for the ages, there are legitimate questions about him moving forward. In 2018 Bauer recorded a 2.21 ERA with the Cleveland Indians, which was good enough for sixth in Cy Young voting. However, in the other seven seasons of his career, his lowest ERA is 4.18. Nevertheless, Bauer has preached his desire for an advanced analytics department as a driving factor for where he will eventually sign. Look no further than the Los Angeles Angels. The Angels have wholly revamped their analytics department under manager Joe Maddon and seem like the perfect landing spot for Bauer. The Angels need pitching desperately to not waste Mike Trout's career, and they have proved that they are not afraid to spend money. Bauer, who himself is from Hollywood, has a chance to be the true ace on this staff, and his big personality and brand would be amazing in the LA market. Bauer's personality is undoubtedly great for the MLB, and it would be fun to see Bauer and Trout lead the Angels on a playoff run.

Other teams to watch: Dodgers, White Sox, Blue Jays

3. DJ LeMahieu, INF signs with the Los Angeles Dodgers: five years $110MM

When is the last time the Dodgers were not tied to a major free agent on any given year? As the current model MLB franchise, the reigning World Series champions are always a threat to acquire big names in free agency. LeMahieu is the best first baseman, second baseman and third baseman on the free-agent market this year. He's also the reigning AL batting champion, posting a .364 average on his way to his second career batting title. The 2-year, $24 MM contract the Yankees gave DJ before the 2019 season could very well go down as one of the biggest bargains in history. DJ has played MVP caliber baseball the last two years, and despite being 32, he will be paid accordingly. According to Jack Curry of the YES Network, the Yankees are in "wait-and-see-mode" for LeMahieu. With the two sides reportedly $25MM apart, now is the perfect time for the Dodgers to swoop in and sign the three-time All-Star. The Dodgers finally were able to win their first World Series under their new ownership after falling short in the playoffs the seven years prior. If the Dodgers were to sign LeMahieu, it is conceivable that Justin Turner would wind up elsewhere, which seems more and more likely as reports have surfaced that he is seeking a four-year deal. LeMahieu is the logical replacement for the Dodgers at third base for the foreseeable future.

Other teams to watch: Yankees and Blue Jays.

2. J.T. Realmuto C signs with the St. Louis Cardinals: five years $125MM

Assuming this comes to fruition, or the Cardinals go in another direction at catcher, it will be the first time in 18 years that Yadier Molina will not be the mainstay behind the dish for the Red Birds. Realmuto, who will be 30 by the time the 2021 season begins, has cemented himself as the best catcher in baseball by a significant margin, and would be the perfect successor to Molina in St. Louis. For the Cardinals, who are always seemingly in contention, this seems like a match made in heaven. The Cardinals finished third in the NL Central last season at 30-28 and were able to sneak into a Wild Card spot. With the Cubs shedding payroll, now could be a prime opportunity for the Cardinals to make a splash and jump back up as the team to beat in the Central. What may stand in the way is the Cardinals' willingness to spend money amidst the pandemic. Only the Mets and Padres have spent serious money this offseason, but the Blue Jays have also made it very public they are willing to spend big money. If the Cardinals are willing to spend, Realmuto could be the perfect offseason splash for them. If not, look at the Phillies and Nationals to be significant players for the superstar catcher.

Other teams: Phillies, Nationals

1. George Springer CF signs with the Toronto Blue Jays: five years $140MM

Before the Mets acquired Francisco Lindor and Carlos Carrasco from the Indians, it seemed like a foregone conclusion that Springer would end up in New York. Now, it appears less likely, although still possible, as the Mets have stated they wish to remain under the Competitive Balance Tax threshold ($210MM). They should be able to fit Springer under the tax, but it would give them very little flexibility. This opens up the window for Springer to head north of the border. It has been widely reported that it is a two-team race for the best player on the free-agent market, and now it could be the Blue Jays all by themselves. The Jays have roughly $100MM tied up in payroll as of January 8th, about $30MM under the league average. After trading Blake Snell, the Rays will seemingly be less of a threat in the AL East, leaving the window wide open for the Blue Jays to compete with the Yankees. Springer, 31, would be a massive opportunity for any team but specifically for the Blue Jays, who are essentially in a two-horse race for the division title and looking for something to put them over the top. Springer is tied for fourth all-time with 19 career playoff home runs and would add a much-needed veteran and postseason-experienced presence in the Blue Jay clubhouse. Moreover, don't expect the Astros sign-stealing scandal to impact the Springer market. He has proven that he can still hit and field at an elite level. Don't count the Mets out yet, but if I were a betting man, I'd throw on Springer donning a Blue Jays jersey for the next bunch of years.

Other teams: Mets

Will any of these come true? Maybe, but only time will tell. The Hot Stove has been cooler than usual thus far, but with Spring Training just over a month away (assuming there is no delay due to COVID), expect the market to heat up quickly.